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|October 01,2024Q3 2024 Flash Data: Private Home Prices Fell On Weaker Sales, HDB Resale Flat Prices Gained Strength
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01 October 2024, Singapore - Flash estimates showed diverging price trends between private residential properties and public housing resale flats in Q3 2024. Overall private home prices fell for the first time since Q2 2023, while the growth momentum in HDB resale prices continued to gain traction in Q3 2024, backed by healthy demand for resale flats.
Q3 2024 URA Private Residential Property Index (Flash)
Flash estimates from the URA showed that overall private home prices fell by 1.1% QOQ in Q3 2024, compared with the 0.9% QOQ increase in Q2 2024 - marking the first quarterly decline since Q2 2023 where prices dipped by 0.2% QOQ (see Table 1). Cumulatively, overall private home prices rose by 1.1% in the first nine months of 2024, compared with the 3.9% increase in the same period in 2023. The flash estimates capture transactions up till mid-September, and the final print will be published on 25 October.
Table 1: URA Private Property Price Index (PPI)
Price Indices | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 (Flash) |
(QOQ % Change) | (YOY % Change) | (QOQ % Change) | ||||||
Overall PPI | 3.3 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 | -1.1 |
Landed | 5.9 | 1.1 | -3.6 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 1.9 | -3.8 |
Non-Landed | 2.6 | -0.6 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | -0.3 |
| 0.8 | -0.1 | -2.7 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 3.4 | -0.3 | -1.5 |
| 4.4 | -2.5 | 2.1 | -0.8 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| 1.9 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 13.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
The landed private homes segment had put a drag on overall prices, posting a 3.8% QOQ decline in Q3 2024, following the 1.9% QOQ increase in the previous quarter. The price decline came amidst lower transactions across all landed housing types (detached, semi-detached, and terrace house); overall private landed home sales fell by 20% QOQ in Q3 2024, based on URA Realis caveat data.
Meanwhile, private non-landed homes witnessed a marginal price decline of 0.3% QOQ in Q3 2024 after four straight quarters of price growth. In the first nine months of 2024, non-landed private home prices have climbed by a cumulative 1.3%, much slower than the 4.2% increase for the corresponding period in 2023. Within the non-landed homes segment, prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) fell by 1.5% QOQ in Q3 2024, while the Outside Central Region (OCR) saw a 0.1% QOQ dip in prices. The Rest of Central Region (RCR) bucked the down-trend, posting a slender 0.2% QOQ price growth in Q3 2024.
PropNex anticipates that the final PPI print for non-landed homes and the RCR could improve slightly, when the transactions at new launch 8@BT in Beauty World are taken into consideration. The project was put on the market on 21 September and it shifted 53% of its 158 units at an average price of $2,719 psf.
Based on URA data and caveats lodged, developers sold an estimated 1,072 new private homes (ex. EC) in Q3 2024 (till 22 Sep), taking the total to around 2,960 units in the first nine months of 2024. Meanwhile, URA Realis caveat data showed that there were 3,068 private residential resale transactions (ex. EC) in Q3 2024, bringing the nine-month figure to an estimated 9,559 units.
For the whole of 2024, PropNex projects that new home sales (ex. EC) may come in at around 4,500 to 5,000 units, and private resale transactions may hover at around 12,000 to 13,000 units. Meanwhile, overall private home prices could grow by 2.5% to 3.0% in 2024 - slowing from the 6.8% growth in 2023.
Mr Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Realty said:
"The slight price decline in Q3 2024 may be attributed to several factors, such as the weaker transaction volumes, limited number of major new launches during the quarter, and developers pricing units sensitively in a market where buyers have more choices, and are generally not in a rush to commit to a property purchase. We anticipate that the URA PPI may improve marginally when the final print is out, capturing sales from the rest of September.
In recent years, private home prices in Singapore have been relatively resilient, holding up against the weight of some of the highest interest rates we have witnessed in decades, fresh rounds of cooling measures, and slower sales. We think a slight moderation or gradual movement in price trends, coupled with optimism around the potential easing in home loan rates and positive economic outlook will be welcomed by homebuyers.
With more project launches coming up in Q4 2024, we think private home prices could find some support, as new home sales tend to boost overall prices. In Q3 2024, there were three fresh projects being launched, namely Sora in Yuan Ching Road and the freehold Kassia in Flora Drive, as well as 8@BT in the RCR - which were the best-selling projects in Q3 2024 (see Table 2).
Table 2: Popular private residential projects and top deals in Q3 2024*
Top 5 new sales in Q3 2024 by projects | Top 5 resales in Q3 2024 by projects | ||||
Project name | Region | Transactions | Project name | Region | Transactions |
KASSIA | OCR | 162 | TREASURE AT TAMPINES | OCR | 46 |
SORA | OCR | 110 | JADESCAPE | RCR | 28 |
8@BT | RCR | 83 | PARC ESTA | RCR | 25 |
TEMBUSU GRAND | RCR | 71 | THE TAPESTRY | OCR | 24 |
HILLHAVEN | OCR |
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